July 29, 2005

02:13:09 pm Dubai, United Arab Emirates  

Thursday, July 21, 2005 - Monday, July 25, 2005

The United Arab Emirates are just that--seven emirates (i.e., city-states ruled by a sheikh) on the Arabian Peninsula that united in 1971 to form a country when the UK pulled out of the Middle East. Dubai is the best-known emirate, due to its hugely ambitious development plans to become the top destination in the world in an economic race against time before its oil runs out. The capital of the UAE is the emirate/city of Abu Dhabi. The other five UAE emirates are not well known--Sharjah, Ajman, Fujairah, Umm al-Qaiwain, and Ras al-Khaimah. Two other emirates that contemplated joining the UAE, but instead formed their own countries are Bahrain and Qatar.

Country Background

Population: 2.5 million

Per capita GDP: $23,200 in purchasing power parity; absolute figure not available.

Size: slightly smaller than Maine

Currency: Emirian dirham, fixed at 3.67 per US dollar

Language: Arabic (official); English is widely spoken; other languages are common due to high numbers of foreign workers.

Emirians are a minority in their own country. Less than one-fifth of the population are citizens of the UAE, with most skilled and non-skilled work performed by foreign workers. The country is a melting pot of people from the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Europe. However, with the melting pot concept not extending easily to citizenship, the workforce may be transitory--here for a few months or years and then back home.

Independence: 1971 from the United Kingdom

Trip Itinerary:
July 21: Cathay Pacific flight from Mumbai, India to Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Four nights at the Radisson SAS Resort, Sharjah
One overlapping night at the Burj al-Arab, Dubai

Our lodging takes some explaining. The Burj al-Arab bills itself as the most expensive hotel in the world. A discounted standard room starts around $850 per night. For this you get a two-floor suite (see image gallery) with a private butler and a seeming unlimited array of amenities. For everything you get, it is actually a better value than most resort hotels worldwide, which only provide a fraction of the offerings, but still cost $300 - $600 per night.

After much debate, we decided that a proper trip around the world should include such a stop. We stayed one night at the Burj al-Arab, and then slummed it back to our mid-range accommodation in the neighboring emirate of Sharjah.

Notable Activities:

Desert Safari: This consists of an occasionally heart-stopping 4-wheel drive through the desert, careening over sand dunes, followed by a camel ride, dinner, and belly dancing. Recommended.

Wild Wadi Water Park. A water park for couch potatoes. Rather unique in that their water jets propel your inner tube uphill on the water slides so you don't have to climb up stairs. Overall, though, with one exception, the slides are tamer than most parks. Wild Wadi is next to Burj al-Arab and its four other sister properties.

Burj Dubai Presentation Center. We saw an ad in the newspaper for the presentation center of the world's tallest building. Not knowing what to expect, we went to it and viewed a model of a two-bedroom condo. The building is slated to be mostly condos, with a hotel on the lower floors, but no office space. A one-bedroom condo starts at $550,000, a two-bedroom unit begins at just under $1 million, and a three-bedroom unit starts at just over $1.2 million. These are the base prices, the actual amount you could spend may be much higher. Overall, these are reasonable prices for large city condos, which is why Dubai is a popular second-home location, especially for people from expensive Europe.

Dubai Museum. Located in an old fort in the old part of the city.

Shopping is another prime attraction in Dubai--we did a limited amount of this.

City Background:

Dubai

Temperature high/low during our stay: 110/90. Yes, that's right, the overnight low is 90. But it's a dry heat! Temperatures are hottest in June, July, and August, and most comfortable in the winter months. It's like Phoenix.

Population 826,000 in 2000. Today the population is probably around 1 million.

Commentary:

The discovery of oil is a mixed blessing for a country. Oil wealth promises great things, but too many countries become addicted to this economic narcotic, enjoying booms, and suffering busts. Oil makes things too easy for unambitious countries who are content to let the good times roll, oblivious that the good times may also run out. Countries are probably no different from human beings who fall into a huge financial windfall. Some become overreliant on their newfound gain, ceasing all other forms of productive activity, and ultimately squandering their bounty in a shortsighted manner. Others are more balanced and never become addicted to wealth, and even use it to achieve a desirable outcome that otherwise would not be possible. The United Arab Emirates is a country that would seem at first to be of the former type. Oil is the primary thing it has going for it. (In fairness, it also has a decent location for trade.) But Dubai is trying to become the latter case. It knows its oil will run out some day, perhaps only 10-15 years from now. And it is trying to make something sustainable of itself before it does.

Dubai's goal is to be the top destination in the world. That goal is not qualified. It is not satisfied to be the top destination in the Middle East, or the top destination in the world for tourism, or the top destination for Muslims. It wants to be the top destination for everything for everyone. It's a long way off from that of course, but it has a lot in the works.

Dubai is a city of imagination, much like Las Vegas, but striving to make Las Vegas look unambitious, if that is possible. There's no gambling here, but already you will find a long list of world firsts and bests, many of which are presently under construction. Notable attractions are:

- Burj al-Arab, the self-proclaimed world's most expensive hotel and an iconic building to rival Sydney's Opera House.
- Burj Dubai, to be the world's tallest building upon completion in 2008. Its exact height is a secret but some estimates have it topping the present champion by 600 to 700 feet, a magnitude unprecedented in that new world's tallest buildings tend to surpass their predecessors by less than 100 feet.
- Dubai Mall. A shopping mall next to Burj Dubai. Naturally, it will be the largest in the world when it opens in 2008. Sorry Mall of America!
- Emirates Mall. Opening in September 2005, this underachieving mall will be only the third largest in the world. However, it makes up for this by having an indoor ski resort in the desert.
- The Palms. A high-end condo and housing development built on man-made islands in the ocean, with the entire development looking like a giant palm tree when viewed from above. Hype being all the rage these days in Dubai, the Palms has the audacious marketing claim that it can be seen from the moon, a point that everyone and every publication repeats as fact. Probably someone thought that if the Great Wall of China can be seen from the moon, then certainty the Palms should be observable. The problem is that--despite the urban legend--the Great Wall of China is not viewable from the moon, and we doubt the Palms are either. Nonetheless, it is an impressive design.
- The World. One-upping the Palms, the World is a collection of 300 man-made islands in the shape of the continents of the world.

There are many other developments in progress such as a hotel that's completely underwater, Dubailand, a Disneyland imitation, and many others. For every project that's complete, one or two more are in progress it seems.

For Americans, a long ways away from Dubai, and thus knowing little about it, this may all seem a bit unbelievable. But Dubai is already a significant tourist destination for Europeans. You can't watch a European sports event without seeing the ubiquitous "Fly Emirates" slogan for the national airline plastered throughout the stadium and on player jerseys.

It is an odd place. Definitely Muslim, but tolerant of all cultures, you see bikini-clad Europeans next to Arabian women clad from head to toe with only their eyes revealed in a full-length black burqa. In 110-degree heat. At the water park. An adventuresome burqa-clad female may hop onto one of the inner tubes--still wearing her burqa, of course.

For those inclined to work, the country features no corporate income tax for 15 years for companies locating here and no personal income tax for employees of those companies. The UAE is the only country we have flown into (other than inter-EU travel) where as a US citizen you do not need to fill out any paperwork. It is trying hard to get you here and keep you here.

Without doing any research, though, we have an impression that citizenship is hard to obtain. Assuming we are correct and this is by design, we wonder if this may be a shortsighted mistake in this otherwise visionary country. A mercenary workforce can pack up and leave rather easily if the going gets tougher, as may well happen. The government may want that, so that it does not have to stretch its social safety net in tough times. But this may also preclude building a heterogeneous multicultural country (as opposed to just a multicultural workforce), whose diversity is a source of strength. The government may not want that either, but we somehow think its future would be more secure, not less, if it maximized the incentive for people to feel connected to the place.

Dubai will be an interesting place to watch. The city they are building should be spectacular. What happens to it whenever the oil money runs out could be spectacular too. Will they win the race against time and create enough non-oil related critical mass to survive in a post oil-wealth era? Or is what they are creating uneconomic, not able to be maintained in the absence of oil money?

Jim Rogers wrote how cities like Las Vegas and Dubai built out of the desert from temporary wealth over a few decades can easily be reclaimed by the desert. Will our ancestors visit the Dubai ruins in few centuries and marvel at the abandoned Burj Dubai and wonder who had the audacity to build the world's tallest structure in a desert? Will they look at the crumbling marble facade of the Burj al-Arab jutting up through sand and water and try to imagine that it once looked like the sail on a ship, and was seen as one of the most iconic buildings of the 21st Century. Visiting the ruins of numerous great cities all over the world, we know this is a possibility. Other great cities have lasted for century after century, however, as they have rebuilt and reinvented themselves. Dubai's fate is not pre-ordained; it will be determined by whether its leaders have the same level of willpower in bad times as they now have during good times.

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July 07, 2005

10:03:15 pm World's Tallest Buildings  

A couple of months ago we posed a trivia question that asked what two cities had projects underway that would surpass Taipei 101 as the world's tallest building. We received several responses, but we never got around to answering the question because the responses revealed that we needed to do more research. Moreover, that research reveled, well, the answer we had in mind was not correct, and any answer is more complicated than we anticipated. Now having just visited Taipei 101, we procrastinate no further and provide an answer.

The cities we had in mind were Shanghai and Dubai, and the buildings we had in mind were, respectively, the World Financial Center (WFC), and Burj Dubai. Subsequent research on our part has shown Shanghai's WFC not to be a correct answer. At the time of its original conception in mid 90s, it was to be the world's tallest. A multi-year construction delay occurred, however, due to--take your pick--1) a glut of office space in Shanghai; 2) financing problems after the 1997 Asian crisis; or 3) soil tests showing the site would not support the original design structurally. Whatever the reason, the architects changed the design during the delay, and the WFC will now be shorter, coming close, but no longer surpassing Taipei 101. On our visit to Shanghai, we confirmed that construction has resumed, although at this point there is nothing to see but a hole in the ground. Some rumors suggest there is a secret plan to add some form of structural appendage to the top so that WFC would be taller than Taipei 101. This strikes us as wishful thinking by Shanghai boosters because the design of WFC does not allow easily for such an appendage (see Shanghai image gallery for a depiction of the finished building). Further, it's probably a moot point anyway, because with the delay in Shanghai, the much taller Dubai building is now scheduled for completion around the same time.

This illustrates an issue with the announcement of future world's tallest buildings. Most announcements never get off the ground. We recall that two different projects announced in Chicago over the past two decades, the Miglin-Beitler Tower at Madison and Wells in 1989, and the Dearborn Tower at Madison and Dearborn in 1999 were never built due to financing problems. That developers announced each shortly before a recession that scuttled their financing plans is no coincidence. Tall building announcements are often a contrarian indicator about future economic activity. For someone to have audacity to build the world's tallest building usually takes a prolonged period of economic prosperity. And after such a prolonged period, things are usually due to take a tumble. For such a project to be completed, it must be well under construction when the downturn hits. Consider three prior world's tallest buildings. Each signaled a major economic downturn, but each was far enough along to be completed. The Petronas Towers were completed in 1998, the year after the Asian Crises hit Malaysia and the rest of developing Asia. The Sears Tower was completed in 1974, while the painful 1973-1974 OPEC oil embargo recession was underway. The Empire State Building topped out in 1931 during the Great Depression.

Here are the figures. Taipei 101 is 1,670 feet tall. Burg Dubai is scheduled to finish in 2008 at an eye-popping 2,314 feet. While a building is never certain until it's finished, the foundation work is complete and we think more likely than not, this building will be built. (We will be in Dubai in two weeks and probably will talk more about what's happening in that city at that time.) There are some rumors that the final height of Burj Dubai may be different from the initial figure here, and it could be even higher. The Shanghai WFC now will not finish until 2008 and it will be 1,614 feet.

Here's a web link to information on Burj Dubai:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burj_Dubai

Note that outdated information for Shanghai WFC remains prevalent on the web, indicating an earlier completion date than 2008 and taller height. You will also find incorrect information on the web for a project called Union Square Phase 7 or Kowloon Station Phase 7 in Hong Kong. The outdated information is that this building will be around 1900 feet, which could have made it the world's tallest. Developers have since redesigned that building down to 1,588 feet. It has a 2007 completion date--we do not know if it remains on schedule. Also on the web are extremely sketchy details on something called the Center of India Tower in Katangi, India that is to be 2,222 feet, making it the world's tallest, if you ignore the Dubai building. This project was first announced years ago and with no substantial information available on it today, we are skeptical it will ever be built. Finally, there's the Freedom Tower in New York City to be built on the site of the World Trade Center. A third iteration of its design was released last week. While this iteration fixes the security problems present in the second iteration, in our opinion it re-introduces the aesthetic concerns that scuttled the first iteration. Now not scheduled to be completed until 2010, the present design retains the spire that will rise to a symbolic 1,776 feet. At present, we believe the chance of the current design being built is 50% at best. Even if it is, we think it is unlikely that this building will ever hold the title of the world's tallest building.

Now let's recognize those who answered our question. Cheryl Hays of Plant City, Florida, aka Deanna's mom, was not the first to answer, but she was the first to provide the answer we had in mind. She not only named the buildings in Dubai and Shanghai, she also mentioned Union Square in Hong Kong and the Freedom Tower in New York City. No penalties for guessing here! We award her the no*prize for this trivia question!

Larry Padgett of Buchanan, Michigan aka Nick's dad responded first. He also named the Hong Kong building, which he prefers to call Kowloon Station, as well as the Center of India Tower. Sorry dad, but you had outdated information on Kowloon Station's height and the India building is does not have a credible chance of being built, in our opinion. Nevertheless, we do not want to be ungracious, so we award you an honorable mention early bird no*prize for your superior responsiveness!

Finally, John Stierman of Macomb, Illinois, aka Nick's mom's neighbor, correctly, albeit a bit belatedly, named Dubai as one of the two cities we were looking for. He had the good sense not to name Shanghai since it wasn't a correct answer anyway. John wins the high-percentage answerer no*prize honorable mention award.

The link below details the 100 tallest buildings in world as of right now (buildings under construction are not listed). We list the top 20 in this post (the formatting is messed up but you should be able to read the table). We note that the city of Hong Kong now has as many buildings in the top 20 as the entire United States. China leads all countries with five in the top 20--nine if you include Hong Kong and 11 if you include Taiwan. Asia has 16 of the top 20, the US four. The US does have 11 buildings in the next top positions, 21-40.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0001338.html

Rank; Building; City; Year; Stories; Height in Feet
1. Taipei 101, Taipei, Taiwan
2004 101 509 1,670
2. Petronas Tower 1, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
1998 88 452 1,483
3. Petronas Tower 2, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 1998 88 452 1,483
4. Sears Tower, Chicago
1974 110 442 1,450
5. Jin Mao Building, Shanghai 1999 88 421 1,380
6. Two International Finance Centre, Hong Kong 2003 88 415 1,362
7. CITIC Plaza, Guangzhou, China 1996 80 391 1,283
8. Shun Hing Square, Shenzhen, China 1996 69 384 1,260
9. Empire State Building, New York
1931 102 381 1,250
10. Central Plaza, Hong Kong 1992 78 374 1,227
11. Bank of China, Hong Kong 1989 72 369 1,209
12. Emirates Tower One, Dubai 1999 54 355 1,165
13. Turntex Sky Tower, Kaohsiung, Taiwan 1997 85 348 1,140
14. Aon Centre, Chicago 1973 80 346 1,136
15. The Center, Hong Kong 1998 73 346 1,135
16. John Hancock Center, Chicago 1969 100 344 1,127
17. Wuhan International Securities Building, Wuhan UC05 68 331 1,087
18. Shimao International Plaza, Shanghai UC05 60 331 1,087
19. Ryugyong Hotel, Pyongyang, N. Korea 1995 105 330 1,083
20. Burj al Arab Hotel, Dubai 1999 60 321 1,053

Finally, as we have written before, there are multiple definitions of how a building's height is measured. The definitions multiplied when Petronas Towers surpassed Sears Tower by the official measure, but Sears boosters pointed out that it was actually still taller by three alternative measures. As of its completion, Taipei 101 now tops the list under three of the four definitions (including the official definition), with Sears still holding the title under one definition, and Petronas no longer having any claim as world's tallest.

Here is an article that explains these definitions (1 meter = 3.28 feet). Again, the formatting is messed up, but you should be able to read what it says.

For immediate release – April 20, 2004

“World’s Tallest” Confirmed for Taiwan

Chicago . . . The Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat’s Height Committee, after reviewing its height criteria, has officially designated Taiwan’s Taipei 101 as the “World’s Tallest”. The initial announcement was made by CTBUH Chairman, Ron Klemencic, at the Structural Engineers Foundation of Illinois’ 2004 Lecture on April 15 in Chicago, where members of the Taipei 101 design team made a presentation on the construction of the building.

Measured to the architectural top, Taipei 101 has a height of 508m, which places it above Malaysia’s twin Petronas Towers, measuring in at 452m. Chicago’s Sears Tower now moves into fourth place at 442m, followed by the Jin Mao Building in Shanghai at 421m.

The CTBUH official criteria states that “The height of a building is measured from the sidewalk level of the main entrance to the architectural top of the building, including penthouse and tower. Towers include spires and pinnacles. Television and radio antennas, masts, and flag poles are not included.”

In 1996 the Council voted to expand the data gathered to include three additional height categories – Highest Occupied Floor, Top of the Roof, and Top of Pinnacle or Antenna. Although the Sears Tower held the record in these three categories, Taipei 101 has now taken over two of the three, with the Sears Tower remaining as the record holder for Top of Pinnacle or Antenna at 527m.

The international membership of the CTBUH Height Committee includes Mir Ali of the University of Illinois, Champaign, IL; Eli Attia of Eli Attia Architects, New York, NY; Georges Binder of Buildings & Data, Brussels, Belgium; John Chapman of Schindler Elevator Corporation, Morristown, NJ; Joseph Colaco of CBM Engineers, Houston, TX; W. Gene Corley of Construction Technology Labs, Skokie, IL; Mahjoub ElNimeiri of the Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL; James Forbes of Scott Wilson Irwin Johnson Pty Ltd, Sydney, Australia; Tom Fridstein of the Hillier Group, New York, NY; Marshall Gerometta, St. Joseph, MO; Jeff Herzer of World’s Tallest Media, Inc., St. Joseph, MO; Nicholas Isyumov of The University of Western Ontario, Southwold, Canada; Tom McCool of Turner Steiner International, Doylestown, PA; R. Shankar Nair of Teng & Associates, Chicago, IL; Gary Pomerantz of Flack + Kurtz, New York, NY; Mark Sarkisian of Skidmore Owings & Merrill, San Francisco; Jan Vambersky of Corsmit Consulting Engineers, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; and George von Klan of Edgett Williams Consulting Group, Mill Valley, CA.

The Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat, based at the Illinois Institute of Technology in Chicago, IL is the only international organization that brings together all of the disciplines involved in creating the urban environment on a global basis. Its mission is to disseminate information on healthy urban environments and tall building technology, to maximize the international interaction of professionals involved in creating the built environment, and to make the latest knowledge available to professionals worldwide in a useful form. Currently there are over 1,000 members from 80 countries representing a wide spectrum of professional specialization.

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