October 27, 2005

10:43:09 am Romania and Bulgaria Diary  

Wednesday, October 19, 2005 - Budapest, Hungary and Bucharest, Romania

A long day of driving as Romania's capital is on the far side of the country. Barring something unforeseen, Romania is going to be one of the next three countries to join the EU, along with Bulgaria and Croatia. The earliest this will happen is 2007, but the EU may delay their accession if they don't meet all of their fiscal and legal requirements. Right now, I'd put a delay for Romania and Bulgaria up to 50% likely. I'm not sure about Croatia--they are more advanced, but they have an additional war crimes issue to resolve. I wanted to see a before picture of Romania and Bulgaria, having seen the just after picture of the other former communist Eastern European countries that joined the EU last year. Romania, and the same will hold true in a couple days when we are in Bulgaria, is visibly less advanced. Farmers haul their crops with horse-drawn wagons, for example. The roads, usually two lanes, could be worse, but they--along with the driving--could also be much better. The quality of driving services--food and lodging--is low outside of the capital city. McDonalds was about the best thing we saw before Bucharest, and we were surprised and happy to have even that. For me, that is really saying something! Not a fan of the Golden Arches. Stayed two nights at the El Greco Hotel in the city center of Bucharest.

Thursday, October 20, 2005 - Bucharest, Romania

Walked to the National History Museum, where the world's most common exhibit--closed for renovation--was showing. From there, walked to and took a tour of the parliament building--Ceausescu's grand 1980s monument to himself. It's the second largest building in the world in terms of interior space, behind the Pentagon. Overall, there is not that much to see in Bucharest. It's faded and dusty and uninviting. And it's probably ten times better now than it was five or ten years ago. Capitalism has arrived in all of its good and bad forms. The result is not yet pretty, but it has created an oasis here and there, and reasons for optimism within what previously was not a nice place under communism. Foreign investment is exploding here, as Romania's 22 million people are a large enough market opportunity to be attractive. I don't have the figures with me but Romania's domestic stock market is up two to three-fold in less than two years, as people are betting that EU entry will lift the country's fortunes. I think they are right.

So in summary, Romania is a country I find interesting to observe at this point in its development. It's far from having arrived, and not yet enjoyable, but it has definitely departed. Deanna did not like it at all, which I can understand. We will probably both have the same respective feelings about Bulgaria.

Friday, October 21, 2005 - Bucharest, Romania and Sofia, Bulgaria

Went to Romania's military history museum in the morning and then drove 240 miles (6 hours) to Sofia, where we are staying two nights at the SAS Radisson. Temperature was pleasant during the drive, in the low 60s and sunny.

Romania was on the right side in World War I, but the wrong side in World War II. Their territory doubled after World War I, as they were given lands from Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria, and the Soviet Union. At least with regard to the first three countries, the exchange was more a case of punishing the losers than rewarding Romania. I remember a comment in the Imperial War Museum in London that the British questioned how useful an allay Romania was as they kept initiating unwise battles that required the other allies to bail them out. Similar sentiment, of course, was not present in Romania's military history museum. Romania had a fascist dictator heading into World War II, and let's just say he was not a good negotiator. Before the fighting really got started, Hitler forced Romania to give territory to the Soviet Union (with whom Germany had just signed--and not yet broken--a mutual non-aggression treaty), Hungary (this got Hungary excited about joining the German cause), and Bulgaria (this may have helped get Bulgaria on the German side). Romania got the territory given to Hungary (Transylvania--yes, where Dracula is from) back after the war, but I don't think they regained the Soviet territory (I believe this approximates the country of Moldova today, a former Soviet republic).

Had I not read Jim's Rogers books, with his many tales of maddening border crossings (they budgeted one day to cross a border in third world countries), I would have thought the Romanian border crossing at Giurgiu was the worst in the world. Having read his book, I know we got off light, paying only four taxes and being delayed only 30-45 minutes. Here is what we paid:

- Romanian road tax. This is a legitimate tax that all drivers must pay to drive on Romanian roads. Several European countries have a tax like this. Our Peugeot lease has prepaid all of these taxes. To my amazement, when I explained this to the border guard who had never heard of such a thing, he took the initiative to call his supervisor who confirmed my explanation and we did not have to pay.

- 414,000 leu (about $12) Giurgiu city tax. I will have to compliment Giurgiu's finance manager for his creativeness. In the three minutes we spent in his town, he found a way to fleece us of nearly all of our remaining Romanian currency.

- 370,000 leu environmental tax. Like a line at Disneyworld that gets longer every time you turn the corner, this border became more complicated and more costly every time you passed through a gate. Ahead was not the Bulgarian side, but rather another gate with another creative tax. Apparently, our time spent in Romania had caused irreparable damage to the environment, and so we need to pay for the pollution our 40+ miles per galloon vehicle caused. It was unclear whether this was a national tax or a city tax. It was also unclear how to pay since the last tax had nearly wiped out our supply of leu and the border guards were uninterested in dollars, euros, or credit cards. So we sat there. And they sat in their both, content to pretend to fill out paperwork. Finally, the stalemate broke, when Deanna spied a currency exchange. You might think someone would have thought to mention this, but apparently such a revelation did not occur. Of course, the exchange rate was terrible, costing us about $15 instead of the $12 it should have.

- 6 euros bridge toll. Okay, it was a rather large and impressive bridge, but at the time of collection we did not know that and we were rather irritated. Fortunately, they had the courtesy to accept multiple currencies from fleeced travelers.

- 3 dollars fee for disinfecting car. Having crossed the Danube River into Bulgaria, we wondered what border shenanigans awaited us. Fortunately, the Bulgarians were less greedy, although their one attempt at confiscation was commendable in its originality, chutzpah, and fiscal restraint. After the guard station, a muddy pool of water awaited us. I thought this was a preview of terrible road conditions ahead, but no, this filthy puddle was a "disinfecting pool", for which we paid a $3 fee in US dollars to drive though. Thus, we entered Bulgaria with muddy, but apparently disinfected, tires.

Totaling up the damage, it cost us 414,000 leu, 18 US dollars, and 6 euros (converting all figures to dollars, it was just under $40) to drive from Romania to Bulgaria. It could have been worse, but I imagine once these two countries are EU members, all of this nonsense will be gone. This is all part of the before picture that I want to see.

Saturday, October 22, 2005 - Sofia, Bulgaria

Nice day, in the mid-60s. Went to the National Military History Museum and the National History Museum. In an upset, the military museum had more English. Often, military museums, established decades ago after either World War I or World War II, are only in the national language, especially in former communist countries. But this museum had newly updated translations, while the national museum, moved to its present location only five years ago, did not. The national museum was a yawner anyway.

The military museum provided facts, but not necessarily explanations. Bulgaria's recent military history is one of constantly switching sides. Consider the three Balkan Wars of 1912-1914, the last of which led into World War I. In the first, from 1912-1913, Bulgaria, allied with Greece, Serbia, and Montenegro, defeated Turkey. In 1913, though, the victors couldn't get along, and so a second war started, with Greece, Serbia, Montenegro, plus Romania, ganging up on Bulgaria. In World War I, Bulgaria joined the Central Powers (Germany, et al), one of whom was recent enemy Turkey. So in a three-year period, Bulgaria managed to fight alongside but also against most of its neighbors. Why did the first Balkan War victors turn against Bulgaria? Why did Bulgaria join the Central Powers? These explanations are not to be found in the museum.

World War II again found Bulgaria allied with Germany. Why? Again, the museum did not explain. Was it because Germany strong-armed another of its allies, Romania, into territorial concessions toward Bulgaria? I'm sure that did not hurt. Bulgaria joined the war in 1941 (can you say buying at the top?), but did not participate in the invasion of the Soviet Union. How did they avoid this when other German allies were coerced into attacking the USSR? You guessed it, this was not explained. The Soviet Union did not return the favor. They invaded Bulgaria in September 1944 once they turned the tide and began rolling westward. Bulgaria, quickly sized things up, saw that they were no longer on the winning team, declared war on Germany, negotiated a peace treaty with the USSR, and spent the rest of the war fighting the Germans. The Soviets, of course, controlled Bulgaria from Moscow for 45 years, until communism fell in 1989.

Sunday, October 23, 2005 - Sofia, Bulgaria and Timisoara, Romania

Spent about 10 hours in the car today, driving from Bulgaria to our stopping point in Romania. There's no reason to go to Timisoara--it's just a rare, large town with decent accommodation on the route to Zagreb, Croatia and eventually on to Italy. The first political demonstrations that eventually toppled Romania's communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in December 1989 occurred here. I remember Christmas Day 1989 the two main news stories on CNN were the US invasion of Panama and the toppling of Ceausescu in Romania. Having been caught in the Philippines coup earlier that month I was rather tuned in to violent political uprisings and regime changes.

Our leased car is insured in nearly all European countries other than former Soviet republics (except that the Baltics are covered), plus some border countries like Morocco, Turkey, and maybe Tunisia. The exception to this is Serbia and Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Albania. The most direct route from Sophia to Zagreb is right through Serbia and Bosnia, so the lack of insurance means that we must take a lengthy diversion via Romania and Hungary. Our route looks more like a semi-circle than a straight line.

The same border shenanigans occurred going from Bulgaria to Romania that I described earlier leaving Romania to Bulgaria. This time Bulgaria benefited more from border tax creativism. I will say their disinfecting pool actually did have a few remnants of soap suds amid the dirty water. The actual crossing was a ferry ride across the Danube that at this point is wider than the Mississippi River. There was our car, one or two other passenger cars and about a dozen semis on the ferry. The silliness of crossing a border between two non-EU countries removed any unfulfilled longing I had to drive to Serbia and Bosnia.

Disaster during the car ride. My PC just stopped working. Screen froze up again and again. I could only turn it off by unplugging the power and removing the battery. All combinations of power sources (DC car power and PC battery, battery only, DC power only) yielded the same result after a few minutes. Same thing happened in hotel room with AC power. Was able to work for 1-5 minutes before screen froze. Finally after about two hours, freezing stopped. I backed up all data, updated all virus and security software, and updated various device drivers that I thought could be related to the problem.

Monday, October 24, 2005 - Timisoara, Romania; Hungary; Zagreb, Croatia

Disaster returned. After about 10 hours of working properly in hotel, PC gave out after five minutes in the car. In the hotel at night, I was able to work for 1-20 minutes or so before screen froze. My only guess at this point is that after 45 countries or so and 45 slightly different currents and slight voltage differences, my power supplies were shot. I got the PC working long enough to order a new power adapter and a new battery that my mom can bring with her in two weeks when we meet them in Milan. Until then, I will be grumpy.

On the bright side, my expectation that any border crossing would be smooth if one of the sides is an EU member held up. Romania and Croatia know not to screw around with their borders to Hungary.

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October 20, 2005

01:07:08 pm Czech Diary II / Austria, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary Diary  

Monday, October 10, 2005 - Prague, Czech Republic

Our last full day in Prague. I did not do much sightseeing, as we saw a lot yesterday and I wanted to update our web site. In the afternoon, I went to the National Museum, which Rick Steves labeled as "dull." He was too kind. A better description would have been something like "If you could calculate a ratio between the beauty of a building and the merit of its contents, the National Museum in Prague would have the highest ratio, thus making it the poorest use of space of any museum in the world. If you enjoy looking at hundreds of display cases of rocks, by all means do go, otherwise you will be more enriched by watching Czech-language television all afternoon in your hotel room."

Deanna went to the Jewish quarter and checked out the garden grounds around the palace. Her trip to the Jewish quarter reminded me of something I meant to mention about the Jewish museum in Berlin, but forgot. This is always happening, right after posting a log, I think of three additional items I neglected to mention. Anyway, one question I have always wondered is what is it about the Jews that made everyone hate and persecute them. Was it lingering resentment over the Crucifixion? The museum provided this answer. In the 13th Century (1215 sticks in my mind, but I'm not sure if this is the correct date), my favorite whipping boy, the Catholic Church issued an edict that Catholics should not live next to Jews. They required Jews to live in segregated areas, wear a yellow patch to identify themselves as Jews, and prohibited Jews from many jobs in society. In the centuries that followed, they were expelled outright from Catholic countries such as France and Spain. Sound familiar? Just another reprehensible episode in the long history of the Catholic Church.

At night, we went to a modern dance performance at the Black Light Image Theater. Half of it was very interesting, but the comic relief interludes between different segments were insipid and could be cut out completely, with the effect of making the whole show better.

Tuesday, October 11, 2005 - Prague, Czech Republic and Vienna, Austria

Drove about four hours from Prague to Vienna. Similar to the trip between Berlin and Prague, about half the route--mainly the Czech part--was on a two-lane road. The government is building four-lane roads, but this takes time. So, the Eastern Europe roads infrastructure is like the US in the late 1950s and 1960s--major routes are sometimes four lanes, but other times only two. In a decade or two, they will be mostly four lanes. The communists built fantastic public transportation--subways, trams, buses--within cities, but travel between cities was not a priority. The train network is okay, although not as good as Western Europe, but--since most people did not have a car--the roads infrastructure between major cities is not what it should be.

One thing I forgot to mention earlier when we crossed the border from Germany was that the Czech roadside was full of billboards, just like the US, something we have not seen recently. While I have never read this, I assume most Western European countries must outlaw roadside advertising. It's interesting to see different society's differing tolerances for advertising. Western European athletic jerseys look like a NASCAR driver's uniform. Instead of the jerseys saying Manchester United or Real Madrid, they say Vodafone, Siemens, or Emirates. I'm sure the European fans recognize which teams have which jerseys, but I can never remember because the team name is dwarfed (or even non-existent) next to the sponsor's emblem. You never see this in US team sports. Remember the controversy when MLB proposed having a small Spiderman emblem on second base in a movie tie-in for one weekend's worth of games. Why you would have thought they were proposing that pitchers henceforth would have to pitch underhanded, such was the outcry about how the game would be ruined. Our attitude on not polluting an athletic jersey is similar to Western European attitudes on roadsides ("how dare you have signs that inform drivers of restaurants, gas stations, and motels ahead!"). Each side considers the other nuts because it's what they are not used to. Czechs take neither side--they put advertising everywhere. For example, the ice surface on a Czech ice rink has so many ads that you can hardly see the puck (they don't limit themselves to just the boards and the neutral zone ice as in North America).

On a related matter, the UK must severely limit the number of gas stations that can operate. How else could we have run out of gas there, not seeing one station during a 40-mile stretch through a crowded metropolitan area? Continental Europe so far has stations everywhere. As for gas prices, the UK is by far the most expensive. This is most likely an issue as to the level of taxes, but the limited supply of stations may also be a factor. UK prices were roughly $7.50 per gallon, doing the double conversion of liters to gallons and currency to dollars. It cost over $100 to fill up our tank. Elsewhere is Europe, the prices have ranged from just over $4 to around $6 per gallon. I remember correctly, Belgium was surprisingly low for Western Europe, at around $4.50 per gallon. In general, Eastern Europe is lower than Western Europe, as taxes and costs are lower here. Prices between $4 and $5 are the norm here, whereas Western Europe is typically over $5.

We're spending three nights at the Austria Trend Hotel Albatros in Vienna. We walked around the old town after arriving mid-afternoon, spending much of the time comparing our two maps--one super detailed but with no tourist landmarks on it and the other showing all of the tourist spots, but with key details such as street names often neglected. In frustration, I went to the tourist information booth and the man there kindly turned over my detailed map to reveal that what I wanted--a detailed map with tourist sites marked--had been on the reverse side the entire time.

We went to the Haus der Musik (Music Museum). It offers highly interactive exhibits on classical and more modern new-ageish type music. You can even create short compositions. Very unique.

Like Prague, Vienna is full of old, well maintained buildings from centuries past. One hundred years ago, Vienna, at the heart of the still important Hapsburg Austria-Hungary Dynasty, was something like the fifth largest city in the world (presumably behind only New York City, London, Paris, and Berlin). It's population was around 2 million, as compared to about 1.5 million today, a figure that would not place it in the top 50 (top 100?) in the world. Vienna is nicer than Prague, which is to be expected, as they did not have to live through nearly 45 years of communism. Austria's per capita GDP is much higher than the Czech Republic's because of this: in absolute dollar terms $26,720 versus $6,740. The two countries are about the same size, are adjacent to each other, have similarities in history and culture, and have similar populations--Czech Republic 10 million, Austria 8 million. Is there any reason why then, with communism thrown off and both part of the EU now, their economic output per person should not be similar in a few decades time? I can't think of any. Maybe being German speaking gives Austria a slight advantage in that they can better serve the large German market. But the Czech Republic also has the advantage of being newer to capitalism and thus able to learn from the mistakes of others in Western Europe (e.g. don't build huge social welfare programs that sap the incentives from the economy and that ultimately you cannot afford to maintain). This should allow them to leapfrog more developed countries in terms of some technologies and processes. So in an investing sense, I would invest in the Czech Republic rather than Austria.

Some of the Czech Republic's catch up may occur quickly through currency effects. On a purchasing power parity basis, they are not as far behind--Austria's PPP per-capita GDP is $30,000 while the Czech Republic's is $15,750. Austria uses the euro. The Czech Republic uses their own koruna, but plans to switch to the euro, perhaps in 2007 if they meet certain economic targets. I expect the koruna will appreciate between now and then, and once on the euro, the Czech Republic will not be as much of a bargain as it is now.

Received an e-mail from Don Furman in response to the question in my October 4 diary entry:

If memory serves, 99 Luftballoons was the #1 song of 1984 as played on a radio station somewhere during your travels in Australia in April or May.

Noprize?

I was amazed at Don's power of recall (other than it was the #1 song for the month of April 1984 not the entire year on the aforementioned Australian radio station, but that's quibbling). I had forgotten all about writing this. When I posed the question, where have I mentioned "99 Luftballoons" previously in this log, I had in mind the Tampa entry at the beginning of the trip, where the anti-war song fittingly came on as I was playing Missile Command, a nuclear annihilation video game, in a Tampa arcade in January. Although I did not promise a no-prize for answering, I think Don deserves a double no-prize for knowing my subject matter better than I. Your award is not in the mail, Don, and you will not receive it before Christmas.

Wednesday, October 12, 2005 - Vienna, Austria

Went to the Sigmund Freud Museum, the Wien (Vienna) Museum and then took a walking tour of the old town area. The Freud Museum was located in his former office and home before he immigrated to England before the start of World War II. It probably is of interest to fans, but it is really more a collection of mementos than a museum that explains his theories or his significance. I left as I entered, suspecting much of his work was well-intentioned genital-obsessed psychobabble. The city museum was okay although it seemed unaware that Vienna and Austria played any role in either world war. The tour was good, but at 90 minutes did not really do justice to the rich history of Vienna's old town. It easily could have been twice as long without seeing everything. At night, we went to a Mozart concert, a touristy thing to do, but quite good.

Thursday, October 13, 2005, Vienna, Austria

Went to the Belvedere museum, housed in one of numerous Hapsburg Dynasty palaces in Vienna. Having overdosed on palaces in Russia, I just have no desire to see any more, nor really does Deanna. They are all beautiful, but their extravagance is so over the top, that you begin to find them a pointless squandering of wealth for a small group of overprivileged people while the masses suffered. I went to the Belvedere because it had an exhibition on 20th Century Austrian history. This filled in all of the pieces that were missing in the city museum yesterday. Afterward, I went to the Museum of Military History, an aging, but reasonably well done tribute to the Hapsburg proclivity to fight wars with its neighbors. Trying to keep track of all of their battles is like trying to stay on top of a fickle schoolgirl's ever-changing boyfriends. One reason I favor modern history is that I just can't keep track of the earlier periods--all of the different wars begin to blur at some point, although I have come to understand them better on this trip. Finally, I went to the Leopold Museum, an art museum, with an impressionist exhibit from the Museum d'Orsay in Paris. It was okay. Deanna did many of the things I did, but we were on different schedules, as I was staying up late watching the Cardinals playoff games and then sleeping until around 11AM. It's like being in college again.

German-speaking Austria was on the wrong side of history twice this century. Allies with Germany, Austria-Hungary was one of the central powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria, and Turkey) in World War I. From 1938 to 1945, Austria did not exist. It was merged into Germany, a union (the Anschluss) forced by Hitler but generally supported by the population. Each war carried consequences for Austria afterward. World War I ended the Hapsburg Dynasty, dismembering Austria-Hungary from a great empire to a small country. (As an aside, it is worth noting the unexpected consequences of war--World War I ended the age of monarchism just as World War II brought the colonial era to a close. Neither war was fought toward these aims, but these political systems were no longer sustainable following the wars.) The end of World War II saw Austria re-established as a separate nation from Germany, but one occupied by the four victorious powers just like Germany. Fortunately, for Austria, the outcome was different than in Germany. The occupation zones never became a divided border, and in 1955, the four powers left, with Austria becoming a permanently neutral nation.

Just who are these Hapsburgs, a family name not well known in the US, other than by students at liberal arts colleges? Here's a short history, as I understand it:

1273: First Hapsburg ruler, Randolph I
1500 - 1558: Charles V (Charles I in Spain). Through conquest and marriage, the Hapsburgs ruled the Holy Roman Empire (most of central Europe, centered in Germany), Netherlands, Spain, and all of Spain's colonies. At this point, the Hapsburgs were the most powerful rulers in the world. After Charles V, the Holy Roman Empire and Spain were separated.
1618-1648: Hapsburg power in Germany declines during the Thirty Years' War, a continent-wide conflict between Catholics and Protestants.
1804: Austrian Empire proclaimed; two years later, in 1806, the Hapsburgs abolished the Holy Roman Empire. Partly the HRE had outlived its purpose, but also according to my tour guide, they feared that an ascendant Napoleon coveted the title of Holy Roman Emperor. As long as the HRE existed, the Hapsburgs thought they were more vulnerable to Napoleon she said.
1867: Bowing to a Hungarian independence movement that had raged since 1848, the Dual Monarchy of Austria-Hungary is established.
1914: Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the Austrian throne, is assassinated in Sarajevo by a Serbian nationalist. Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia. Russia, an ally of Serbia, mobilizes for war. Germany, an ally of Austria-Hungary, attacks France, an ally of Russia, hoping to defeat it and turn its sole attention to Russia. Desiring an element of surprise, Germany's attack route went through Belgium, and this violation of Belgium sovereignty brought the UK into the war. World War I begins.
1918: Austria-Hungary defeated, the nation of Austria created with about one-eighth the territory of the Austrian-Hungarian Empire. The last Hapsburg ruler sent into exile.

Friday, October 14, 2005 - Vienna, Austria; Slovakia; Krakow, Poland

A driving day, going from Vienna to Krakow. I'm not sure of the exact mileage--it was probably in the range of 300-350 miles. This took us eight hours, although we did stop once. Staying two nights at Hotel Francuski, a renovated property in an old building in the old town area.

This was our first time in Slovakia and our route took us threw a string of rather grim looking communist-era industrial towns. There are signs of foreign investment though--the European hypermarkets are here, namely Tesco and Carrefour (respectively, UK and French grocers and general merchandisers somewhat akin to Wal-Mart).

Saturday, October 15, 2005 - Krakow, Poland

We spent the day visiting the Auschwitz I and Auschwitz II-Birkenau concentration camps, over an hour's drive from Krakow, where approximately 1.5 million Jews and other persecuted groups were murdered during World War II. This makes Auschwitz the largest scene of mass murder in human history. Afterward, we visited the Oskar Schindler factory in Krakow. Schindler was not necessarily the nice guy depicted in the movie--he was a war profiteer, utilizing slave labor, and a womanizing alcoholic. Nevertheless, he had an epiphany, and saved over 1,000 Jews who otherwise would have been murdered. Their 7,000 descendents today undoubtedly care less about Schindler's flaws than the positive action he took when it really mattered.

Sunday, October 16, 2005 - Krakow, Poland; Slovakia; Budapest, Hungary

We spent the morning in Krakow, touring the salt mines, and driving around Nowa Huta. Afterward, drove about 300 miles to Budapest, mainly through Slovakia. This took about six hours, less than we expected. The roads in Poland are not that good, mainly two lanes with deep groves in the pavement and a lot of traffic. You creep along at around 30 miles per hour. This will be different in a decade or two. There are more four-lane roads planned than presently exist. For now, though, you tend to get a short stretch of motorway and then it's back to the two-lane creep. Slovakia generally has better roads, although two-lane roads are still plentiful. They just seem a couple years ahead. Actually, I'm glad we are seeing and experiencing Eastern Europe as it is now. It is going to change a lot, and for the better, but I am glad to have a data point of what it's like now, for later comparisons.

The salt mines have to be seen to be believed. No longer active, except for tourism, they are centuries old, and are filled with intricate statues, all carved from salt. It's a bit kitschy, but utterly unique. See image gallery. Nowa Huta is a planned worker's paradise community, built around a steel factory that once employed 40,000 people, and heavily populated Krakow. It was less interesting than I expected--it would probably be better to see on a tour, where its background and key sites could be described. Notably, the central square of this post-World War II Soviet showcase is now named Ronald Reagan Square. The workers' paradise community ironically became a hotbed of political dissent in the 1980s. Western Europe may not give Reagan his due, but the East, experiencing the iron fist of the Evil Empire firsthand, certainly does.

Our drive back in Slovakia took us through the procession of grim industrial towns at first, but further into the country the terrain became more mountainous and the scenery prettier. There were several ski resorts along the way.

In Budapest, listened to NLCS game 4 that began around 2:45 AM. The Cards lost a must-win game 2-1, and now trail in the series 3 games to 1. They had numerous scoring chances, including first and third with no outs in the 9th, but they could not pull it out.

Staying three nights at art'otel, the same hotel we stayed at in Berlin. The rate actually is more here than in Berlin. More on Hungarian prices tomorrow.

Monday, October 17, 2005 - Budapest, Hungary

Went on a four-hour walking tour of the city. All of the seven other people on the tour (five Australians and two Americans) were traveling for an extended period in Europe, the shortest trip being about five weeks. That's the first time everyone we have been with on a tour was traveling long term. We all swapped many notes and observations of different destinations. The weather was cool, mid 50s, but with bright sunshine that made it feel warmer.

Although it is over 1000 years old, Budapest does not have the narrow old town streets of other Eastern Europe capitals. The streets are wide in a manner that mildly reminded me of Moscow. The city has the old architecture you would expect, with the 19th Century most dominant.

Prices here are higher than I expected, closer to Germany than the rest of Eastern Europe. I don't know why this is--I have not heard a good explanation. Wages and per-capita GDP is in line with the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland, but prices are higher. Possible reasons could be that Budapest is a larger city (about 2 million people) so real estate is more expensive (I don't know if it is), or that there is more foreign investment here (again, I don't know if there is), perhaps because Hungary was first to throw off communism. GDP growth rates are decent--between 3% and 4%--but nothing special, and perhaps a bit laggardly, for Eastern Europe. The government's fiscal situation is poor with a budget deficit over 6% of GDP, and the euro won't be adopted here anytime soon. The government's target date of 2010 is being questioned as too aggressive, considering the budget deficit. My conclusion is that the currency is overvalued. I emailed a friend of mine, Roger Neale, about this. Roger is English, but now lives in Chicago with his Monika, from Hungary. He agreed that Hungary's currency, the forint, could be overvalued. He said an additional risk is that Hungarian consumers often take out consumer loans in Swiss francs to get an interest rate below the local forint rate. He did not think this situation--foreign imports financed by foreign loans--was healthy.

After the walking tour, I took a long multi-hour nap to recover from last night's game, which ended about 5:30 AM, and to prepare for Monday night's game, beginning at 2:30 AM. Throughout the trip I've poked fun at various countries or institutions for their ridiculous practices, so let me now criticize an American institution--Major League Baseball--for their provincial Americanism in not understanding the international market. I've been watching the baseball playoffs over the internet, or when my connection is not fast enough, listening to an audio feed from KMOX, the Cardinals station. Last night (game 4) and tonight (game 5) I have had a fast enough connection, but the MLB site blocked me from watching the video, assuming (incorrectly) that I was in the US (where the games are blacked out on the internet, due to the exclusive that Fox has in broadcasting the games within the US). The message that popped up invited me to call customer service if I thought this was an error, and provided a toll-free number for me to call. US companies have a total blind spot on this, not realizing that anyone outside of the US and Canada cannot call a US toll-free number. Thus, a service available to international fans has a customer service number that none of them can access. Brilliant! They do also have an e-mail address, hidden deep within their web site, but responding quickly to e-mail does not seem to be a priority. I'm okay listening to the audio, as the announcers tend to be more descriptive anyway. And I do recall that only a couple of years ago, there was no video option anyway (nor would there have been a wireless internet connection in my Budapest room then either). For that matter, it was only just over five years ago that audio became available. So technology has made all of this available in a short period, and my expectations have risen accordingly. A decade ago, I would have had no way of knowing the outcome of the game in real time. I would have had to find the International Herald Tribune two days after the game to learn the score.

The game of course provided one of the top moments in Cardinals baseball history. Down three games to one in the series, facing elimination, losing the game 4-2 with no one on, two outs and two strikes in the 9th inning against the best closer in baseball, the Cardinals improbably won the game. The real reason for their victory is that Deanna woke up just in time to cheer them on in the 9th inning. The Astros, one strike away from the World Series, now have to go to St. Louis for game 6 and hopefully game 7, wondering if once again they have let opportunity slip through their fingers, in a manner worthy of the Chicago Cubs.

Tuesday, October 18, 2005 - Budapest, Hungary

Got up about 11:30, after listening to game until 6 AM. Went to Museum of Military History and National Museum. Tried to go to city history museum, but it was closed. The two museums I did go to were decent, with enough English to make sense of everything. Hungary threw off communism three times, but it was like a virus that kept coming back. After World War I, a Bolshevik regime took hold, but lasted less than a year. After World War II, the Soviets installed a puppet government. In 1956, the Hungarians believed that, at the end of October, they had overthrown the communists. They declared themselves a neutral state, ended censorship, opened their borders, routed Soviet troops, and withdrew from the Warsaw Pact. It lasted about a week and a half. On November 4, Soviet tanks rolled in to Budapest. The leader of the uprising, Imre Nagy, was executed, and Soviet order was restored. In 1989, Hungary was the first of the eastern block countries to fall. They opened their border to Austria, providing a circuitous escape valve to the west. East Germans, for example, could get to West Germany by crossing four borders: Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Austria, and West Germany. This time, the Soviets did not have the willpower to oppose Hungary, and by late October--about two weeks before the collapse of the Berlin Wall--Hungary declared itself a non-communist state. Imre Nagy was reburied as a state hero, a ceremony attended by 300,000 people.

Hungary picked bad partners with regard to the world wars. Aligned with Austria within the Hapsburg Dynasty, it was dragged into World War I when Austria thought they would teach Serbia a lesson. The end of the war also saw the end of the Hapsburgs, and this breakup led to the creation of numerous new countries, to include Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. Hungary lost 70% of its territory and 60% of its population to these two countries and to Romania in the 1920 Treaty of Trianon. Hitler promised Hungary this territory back, and the revenge-minded Hungarians signed on, not really knowing what they were getting themselves into. They participated in Hitler's invasion of the Soviet Union, and when the tide turned, they became a Soviet satellite for nearly 45 years. While I'm no fan of the Soviet Union, I can begin to understand their desire to have a buffer zone of satellite states after the war. They were after all, attacked by troops from Germany, Finland, the Baltics, Austria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, and probably others. Now the USSR attacked Finland and the Baltics first, so no sympathy there, but the other states--under Germany's sway--contributed to the German invasion of the USSR. The Soviets probably did not fear these states directly, as much as it was fearful of Germany's ability to influence them. So the USSR desired that these states, that became German satellites in the late 1930s, become Soviet satellites in the late 1940s. And that is what they did. Hungary did briefly get all of its pre-World War I territory back as Germany promised, but after World War II, its territory reverted to the 1920 Trianon treaty borders.

I read where Northern Ireland (the UK part of the island) has banned smoking indoors, including pubs and restaurants, effective 2007. Then the entire island of Ireland will be smoke free. The Republic of Ireland's (the non-UK part of the island) ban has proved popular with smokers and non-smokers alike, with 90% in one poll supporting the ban. Pubs in Ireland are not just drinking places, but typically the main restaurants in the smaller towns and people appreciate being able to eat smoke free.

Weather: high in mid-50s, low in mid-30s. Oh, and MLB finally responded to my e-mail, providing me with a non-toll-free customer service phone number.

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September 01, 2005

02:51:04 pm Most Expensive Places  

Based on gut feel and memory, here is my list of the most expensive places we have been to this trip (some of these are not cities):

1. Bora Bora
2. Reykjavik, Iceland. Clearly to me it is more expensive than the cities listed below, but because of its small size it may not be listed in many of those most expensive cities in the world rankings.
3. Oslo, Norway
4. London, UK
5. Tokyo, Japan. Before this trip, Tokyo was the most expensive place I have been, but it's now not as expensive as it once was. It's hard to distinguish London and Tokyo as each city is clearly more expensive in some areas and less expensive in other areas--I'd have to examine this more systematically to confidently put one ahead of the other. I list London first if for no other reason than to draw attention to Tokyo's deflation.
6. Moscow, Russia. It's much less expensive for locals than for foreigners, but unless you speak Russian, you are going to pay for the foreigner experience.
7. Copenhagen, Denmark

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02:51:03 pm Russia (continued), Finland, & Norway Diary  

Friday, August 26, 2005 - St. Petersburg, Russia

Visited the Peter and Paul Fortress and the nearby Hermitage Museum. The Hermitage supposedly has the world's largest museum collection of paintings, sculpture, and other art forms spread over five connected buildings--Winter Palace, Small Hermitage, Large Hermitage, New Hermitage, and Hermitage Theater. Our guide Luda said the impressionist painting collection was the largest outside of the Museum d'Orsay in Paris, but it seemed no bigger than the Art Institute. They are probably counting the post-impressionists and the impressionists together as they did have about three dozen Matisse's on display, along with other post-impressionists. The Winter Palace also has state rooms from the time of the czars. They lived here when they weren't dividing their summer months between the ridiculously extravagant Catherine Palace and the over-the-top elegant Summer Palace. After lunch, Deanna and I went to the Museum in Political History in Russia. Unlike our two prior solo museum excursions, this time we found a museum that had a decent amount of English--enough to make it worth going, although more would be desirable as at least half of the museum is only in Russian.

The weather continued to be excellent--about 75 degrees and sunny. I have been able to return to shorts, a good thing as we are in desperate need of doing laundry. That may be our top priority in Finland.

In the time before and after dinner I edited our pictures, Deanna edited my diary log, and we argued over my August 25 Russian excessive worrying gene joke. She thought it was too mean to include, while I thought it was too funny to leave out. I rewrote it based on her feedback, decided it had now become even funnier, and must be included over her protests.

We had a farewell dinner with the other six people in the Exeter group and Luda. It has been a really good group, everyone got along well, and I think enjoyed the trip more because of the group. The only thing more we could have asked would be for some of them to have been from Europe, so that we would have a place to stay in the coming months! Overall, Russia was one of the more surprising countries we have visited. We expected many things to be bad, and few actually were. In India, you pay a lot of money to avoid the unpleasant parts of the country, but you never fully escape India (e.g., the poverty, begging, dirtiness, bureaucratic approach to everything). In Russia, similarly, you pay a lot to enhance your experience and avoid the bad, but in this case--unlike India--you actually do avoid about everything bad. Further, there is a lot to see here that we never expected. And while we may not have learned as much about 20th Century history here as we would have in other countries (due to the language barrier and those museums not being part of our itinerary), we did learn more about the 18th and 19th Centuries than we expected to.

Saturday, August 27, 2005 - St. Petersburg, Russia and Helsinki, Finland

12:35 PM Finnair flight from St. Petersburg to Helsinki, arriving 12:30 PM (one hour time change). Three nights at Cumulus Kaisaniemi Hotel. St. Petersburg was rainy when we left, but it was sunny in Helsinki, although cooler, in the mid-60s. Our plans for Finland are not that ambitious after eight days on the go in Russia--pay bills, do laundry, backup pictures, book UK travel, and so forth, in addition to a limited number of museum visits. Helsinki is a small city, around a half million people in the city proper. Finland itself has around 5 million people. The Finnish language is undecipherable to anyone not Finnish, so everyone speaks English and probably a couple of other languages as well. Finnish is not even similar to languages in neighboring countries of Russia, Sweden, Norway, and Estonia. I went to the National Museum by myself while Deanna walked around town. Our hotel is in the city center, and everything is within walking distance. There's a movie theater across the street from us; at night we saw "It's All Gone Peter Tong" which won Best Feature Film or some similarly named award at last September's Toronto Film Festival. It's a comedy about an Ibiza techno DJ who loses his hearing. It was okay, 2.5 stars. Deanna liked it more than I.

Sunday, August 28, 2005 - Helsinki, Finland

Rained all day, and was cold, 55-60 degrees. Because we are completely out of clothes, I was down to shorts, a t-shirt, and a pullover windbreaker. Drafted Darius's Washington Nationals t-shirt into service and the rookie shirt did well in its debut. Finding an open laundry on Sunday near our hotel was a challenge. The hotel did laundry for a price equal to one week's worth of room rates, but not on the weekend. Eventually we located a cafe that had laundry facilities, although they neglected to tell us over the phone that they had exactly one washing machine. Deanna did two loads and saved the final load for Monday.

I went to the Military Museum and the City Museum. The Military Museum was the best of the three I saw yesterday and today. Although all in Finnish, they had an excellent English language translation booklet that seemed to contain more information than the exhibits themselves. In addition, there was a computer with an interactive DVD presentation of Finland's involvement in World War II. Finland, like the Baltics and eastern Poland, suffered at the hands of the Soviet Union, being east of the secret line Germany and the USSR agreed, dividing up Europe. Like the Baltics, Finland's enemy was the Soviets--and, having a common enemy, Germany was an ally. Finland's experience differed from the Baltics in that they resisted the Soviets more successfully at the beginning of the war and at the end, and they were never subsumed into the USSR (although they did lose some territory) or strong-armed into becoming a communist satellite country. Also, they were a bit more of an official ally of Germany, to the point that the UK, but not the US, declared war on them. Still, given a shared border with the USSR, they had to refrain from any anti-Soviet policies in the post-war period. When the USSR collapsed in 1991, it was Finland's largest export partner, and the collapse caused severe economic dislocations in Finland. Banks failed, bread lines formed, and they had to scale back the degree of their welfare state. As with most economic downturns, though, this period was short-lived as a Nokia-led prosperity occurred in the mid- to late 90s.

Finland did not gain independence until 1917, when the Russian Revolution freed it from Russia's control. A civil war ensued between the Reds and the Whites. Foreign powers intervened on sides, providing soldiers and material. The Russian Bolsheviks supported the Reds, while the Germans supported the Whites. After a few years, the Whites prevailed, and communism was defeated for a generation.

Two decades later, after the USSR and Germany agreed their secret carve up of Europe in August 1939, the USSR began pressing Finland for concessions. When negotiations stalled, the Soviets invaded, at the end of November 1939. They had far more difficulty than expected, losing something like 130,000 soldiers to Finland's 25,000. After three and half months, a peace treaty ended what was known as the Winter War. Finland conceded some territory, but not entire country as Stalin had expected when the war began. Watching the USSR incorporate the Baltic States in summer 1940, Finland naturally remained wary of Soviet intent, and thus was receptive to German munitions and assistance. When Germany intimated to Finland in the spring of 1941 that it might attack the Soviet Union, Finland signed on. German troops occupied northern Finland, and launched an offensive from there, while Finland did the same from southern Finland. Clearly, Finland had revenge in mind, and they even named this conflict the Continuation War in reference to the Winter War that ended 15 months earlier. Finland quickly regained all of its lost territory and then pushed into the USSR. After a few years stalemate, Germany began to collapse and Finnish gains were rolled back by advancing Soviet troops. Finland was on the defensive in 1944, and again negotiated a peace treaty with the USSR from a position of weakness in August 1944. Finland's territorial loses from the Winter War were affirmed. Moreover, the Finns had to make additional territorial concessions, pay reparations to the USSR, and forcibly evict Germany from northern Finland. This effort, where Finland turned on its former ally Germany, was known as the Lapland War and ran through April 1945.

In hindsight, Finland's coziness with Germany was understandable given a need to balance the untrustworthy Soviet Union. Nevertheless, I think Finland allowed their desire for revenge to get the best of them, and ultimately they paid the price, losing further territory and another 35,000 soldiers and civilians in the Continuation War and the Lapland War.

Monday, August 29, 2005 - Helsinki, Finland

Having seen all of the museums I wanted to, I spent much of the day in the hotel room, using my PC and the internet. Nothing exciting--did things like verifying my latest credit card bill, discovering that Hertz double charged me for our rental car in Sweden. Bought Bill Bryson's book, "Notes from a Small Island," his mid-90s travelogue around Britain. Read about 80 pages. Went to "The Island" at the theater across the street. This $100 million-to-make blockbuster was a big flop this summer, and now we know why.

Tuesday, August 30, 2005 - Helsinki, Finland and Oslo, Norway

Had a mid-day flight on SAS, about 90 minutes but gained one hour due to time change. Three nights at Best Western Bondeheimen downtown. Had time in the late afternoon to visit the Armed Forces Museum and the Museum of Resistance. The former was humorously disorganized--one room chronologically followed the next, but within the room, which might cover a century or so, the exhibits were arranged in what appeared to be a completely random order. If you did not know your World War II history, you might come away thinking that Hitler rose in Germany after VE Day. The latter museum was similar to the resistance museum in Copenhagen, Denmark. Like Denmark, Norway tried to remain neutral in World War II, but Germany invaded anyway. The Norwegians held out for two months, as opposed to the Danes two-hour struggle, but the result was the same. Read another 120 pages of Notes from a Small Island, as Deanna and her mom exchanged 57 e-mails regarding the Ireland trip.

Wednesday, August 31, 2005 - Oslo, Norway

A perfect day of weather, about 70 and sunny with a cloudless sky. Finished our Oslo Museum tour with the National Gallery (art), the city museum, and the Nobel Peace Center. We also tried to go to the Munch Museum (the expressionist painter of "The Scream"), but it inexcusably was closed for about two weeks. The Oslo Guide 2005 pamphlet we picked up at the airport said it would be closed until June 2005 for renovation. I guess after an exhausting three month summer season, the facility needed a couple more weeks off. Perhaps the museum director had seen the brilliant weather report and decided now was the time to use up the remainder of his eight weeks annual vacation. The National Gallery did have several Munch paintings, including one version of The Scream. The Nobel Peace Center just opened this year and was much better than the main Nobel Prize Museum in Stockholm. The Nobel Prizes originate in Sweden, but one of the prizes, the Peace Prize, is awarded in Norway. This museum had everything that the Stockholm Museum lacked--a list and bios of all of the winners, and excellent use of technology to provide additional drill-down information as you desired.

Norway's subways are going through a radical transformation. Ticket gates are being installed! Perhaps the honor system was yielding not so honorable results. At about $3 per ride--the second most expensive we have encountered so far, next to London's $3.60--there is strong incentive for dishonorable behavior.

Finished "Notes from a Small Island." I think Bryson's writing has improved with age--this mid-90s effort is in the middle chronologically of the three books I've read on this trip, so it's better than "Neither Here Nor There" written at the beginning of the decade, but not as good as "In a Sunburned Country," written at the end. The ribaldness of "Neither Here Nor There" has toned down, but his often-stated dislike of anything modern (architecture, cars, shopping centers) or conservative (in a political sense--why the Tories have ruined the country with their restraint on reckless overspending) does become tiresome at times. Overall, though, it's quite good. As usual, his description of everyday interactions makes you snort out loud with laughter when you are not expecting it.

Thursday, September 1, 2005 - Oslo, Norway

We took a two-hour cruise around Oslo Fjord. The name fjord conjures up an image of a narrow waterway between steep cliffs, but in this case, Oslo Bay might be a more meaningful name. The water was beautiful, but not fjord-like, even if technically it is a fjord due to its creation from receding glaciers. Sitting next to us on one side was a couple from Bloomington, Illinois, while on the other side was a couple from Springfield, Illinois. None of us knew that it was Downstate Illinois day in Oslo. Actually, the Bloomington couple moved to Raleigh, North Carolina about a year ago. They had just taken the Norway-in-a-Nutshell train/boat/bus tour of fjord-like fjords, and their tales of its beauty filled us with a sense of regret, as we had decided to skip this. Our reasons were sound--the tour either took 24 hours (you return overnight by train) or 16 hours (but you don't get a boat ride); the cost, like many things in Norway, was ridiculous--about $500 for the two of us; and we had done similar excursions in Chile/Argentina and New Zealand. During the New Zealand excursion, we actually were somewhat bored. The beauty of everything was overwhelmed by the longness of the day and the similarity of the trip to the even more beautiful Lakes Region of Chile and Argentina. While everyone else gawked outside at the New Zealand scenery, we sat inside reading Robert Kaplan, occasionally looking up to note some breathtaking image or another, and then went back to reading. Seeing as much as we have does make it a bit harder to be impressed. Therefore, we decided not to do the Norway-in-a-Nutshell tour, and now we were second-guessing ourselves, even though we knew if we did do it, we would probably have passed most of the time reading a travel book about somewhere else. The best way to do this tour is to break it in two, staying overnight in Bergen. If we had known about it ahead of time, we would have done that, but we had already booked three nights for Oslo.

Oslo always places high on the list of most expensive cities in the world, right up there and sometimes ahead of, Tokyo, London, and Moscow. Measured in terms of per-capita GDP, oil-blessed Norway is number two in the world behind Luxembourg and just ahead of Switzerland (there is something to be said for having a small denominator). Adjusted for purchasing power parity, Norway's wealth drops, but it still holds on to the number two ranking, about $100 ahead of the US.

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August 26, 2005

02:25:55 pm Lithuania - Russia Diary  

Thursday, August 18, 2005 - Vilnius, Lithuania

Had a tour of a private museum, The Kavys Varnelis House Museum. As was often the case during our stay here, Kavys Varnelis is a friend of Darius's parents, and Stase arranged the visit for us. Kavys is a Lithuanian artist who like so many of his generation migrated to the US and has now returned to Lithuania. His house featured paintings, furniture, and books he has collected from around the world, plus his own abstract optical art. It is an impressive collection in an impressive building, and it is now a branch of the National Museum, only open by appointment. I could have spent several days in his library that was packed with historical books from the past several centuries. We spent about 15 minutes at the nearby Architectural Museum which had models and drawings from various Vilnius projects, some built, others not. After lunch, I spent the afternoon at the Internet cafe, updating the web site, answering e-mail, and looking up visa requirements for the remaining countries on our trip. We took out Bronius and Stase for early dinner at a French restaurant across the street from where they live to thank them for letting us stay with them. It is reputed to be the best in Vilnius. Their condo is in the heart of the old town, so we were able to walk to everything we did today--it was all within 10 minutes.

Prices in Vilnius and throughout the Baltics are cheaper than the rest of Europe and somewhat below the US, but catching up fast. Darius considers everything dirt cheap--we don't necessarily, having been to so many cheaper places throughout the year. For example, Argentina has roughly the same level of per capita GDP, yet a nice dinner there is only 1/3 to 1/2 of the price of Vilnius. I'm not sure how much of a bargain the Baltics will be in a decade or two. I could see it becoming more expensive than the US, although it may still be somewhat of a bargain relative to Western Europe. Through July, the official year-over-year rates of inflation were 6.1% Latvia, 3.8% Estonia, and 1.8% Lithuania. The increases in what you actually spend are higher, however, because more expensive and better quality goods are becoming available. For example, the best bottle of wine in a restaurant might be over $50 now, when it was only $10 three years ago. More expensive wine is now available, as rapid integration with the European and world economy is occurring.

Friday, August 19, 2005 - Vilnius, Lithuania and Moscow, Russia

6:35 AM flight on Lithuanian Airlines from Vilnius to Moscow. Staying four nights at Hotel Baltschug Kempinski, just off Red Square. Sheremetyevo-2 Airport (SVO) was small--closer to what you would expect from a US city of 100,000, not from a national capital of 9 million. Later learned that Moscow has five airports with a sixth being built--still SVO is the major international airport. The first 15 minutes or so of the 60-minute drive into Moscow was on what appeared to be 2-lane country roads. Overall, quite a contrast to arriving in a major Chinese city where the airport is huge and new and the highway from the airport is a four or six lane US-interstate equivalent.

Went to Museum of Contemporary Russian History, which covered last 150 years. It probably was quite good, but since it was all in Russian, I'm not sure. I half expected this as Russia is not that integrated with the west. I can excuse them for the lack of English (whereas I was critical of Sweden on this point), as even two decades ago they still hoped for Russian to become the world language--although they were probably beginning to doubt the likelihood of this by then. Throughout our travels, we have met people from around the globe--Cuba, Mongolia, Vietnam, Sweden, and the Baltics--who speak Russian fluently. Many of them studied in Moscow. Their children, though, will never know the language, given the fall of communism.

Took a taxi to the museum and then the subway back. First subway we've been on with no English. Russian alphabet consists primarily of Roman and Greek characters, so you can figure out the station names through character recognition, if you are patient. Moscow subways are known for being elaborate, with chandeliers and artwork, and every station designed differently. Still, having heard so much about them, I think I expected a bit more. 70 years with millions of people using them every day has made them a bit less grand, but they are still remarkable.

We met our Exeter Travel group at 5 PM. We toured Red Square and then had champagne and dinner at the hotel. There are three other couples--one from New York City, one from Cincinnati (northern Kentucky), and a mother/daughter from Miami/NYC. This may be the first all American group we've been with on this trip. When we have gone with a group, it has been primarily European. We paid up for our trip to Russia, instead of our usual DIY mid-range approach because we thought Russia would be challenging and would not have much English (and thus having pre-arranged guides would be useful). The other benefit is having people to talk to, and when you pay up, you tend to get interesting, accomplished people that can really make the trip more enjoyable. So far, this group seems similar in that regard to the Chicago Architecture Foundation group we went with to Cuba at the end of 2003.

Saturday, August 20, 2005 - Moscow, Russia

With our group, visited the State Tretyakov Gallery (Russian art) and had a tour of the city. Afterward, Deanna and I went to State Historical Museum, which guidebook misleadingly said had adequate English. It did not, so our visit was short. Had a nice dinner with everyone at Cafe Pushkin, in a refurbished old mansion.

Moscow is nicer than I expected. Of what we have seen, not much is run down, and the city is clean. The graffiti here is less than any city in Europe we have seen so far. From the negative press you read on the country, I expected there to be disorder, with public services falling apart in the post-communist system. A paradox of communism is that life is miserable, the stores are empty, but everything is safe, and--at least on the surface--orderly. So I expected the opposite now--a better life with stores full of goods, but with crime, dirtiness, and disorder. The former is there, but the latter is not evident. It may lurk beneath the surface, but it is not visible to a Western tourist. This makes Moscow a good place to visit, albeit expensive. You do need to be comfortable with the lack of English, though, or compensate for it by paying a lot and having all of your tours pre-arranged. Overall, the city looks much better than you would expect after experiencing 70 years of communist stagnation.

The group we are with is very interesting. When we were booking this trip, we had decided to go with Exeter but were undecided whether to go with a small group or by ourselves. By ourselves meant that we would have a guide everywhere and would get to see exactly the things we wanted to, while the group tour meant we would not see everything we wanted but would have the benefit of being with other people. In the end we decided to go with the group, to save some money (it was only very expensive instead of incredibly expensive), and hoping that having other people around for a change would enhance our experience. This latter point could go either way depending on the group, but so far it has been a great experience, and it is nice for us to have other people to talk with. Actually, we have had and will have this throughout much of Europe, knowing people or having friends and relatives join us in the UK, Sweden, Baltics, Ireland, Italy, France, and Spain.

Sunday, August 21, 2005 - Moscow, Russia

Group visited Pushkin Fine Arts Museum (western art through post-impressionism), Moscow subway, and a shopping area. Once the Russian part of our trip is over, I think I will have had enough shopping and visiting churches for a lifetime. We have seen so many during our trip. The number of churches in Moscow is a real surprise. The communists destroyed many churches, but they left a number of others closed but otherwise undisturbed. They are open now and very popular. Anytime people are denied something, there seems to be high demand for it once it becomes available.

The weather has been good--around 70 and sunny each of the last two days. This is a continuation of the great weather we had in Vilnius, where it was 70-75 and sunny the last three days we were there. It's cool here at night, though--in the mid 40s.

Monday, August 22, 2005 - Moscow, Russia

Spent about half a day at the Kremlin. Kremlin means fortress, and inside there are a series of government buildings, museums, and churches. Again, surprising that not all of the Kremlin churches were destroyed during communism.

Nearly everything I read on traveling to Russia was bad: expensive, overly bureaucratic, terrible service, and rude people. After being here my conclusion is that it is expensive, but having prepared mentally for the worst, it's actually not always as expensive as I expected. There are occasional service lapses and rudeness, and while this is probably lingering Sovietism, it also could be just randomness. Things are bureaucratic, especially the visa process before arrival, but once you are here it's no worse, and perhaps better than a place like India (although that may not be saying much!). If traveling straight from the middle of the US to Moscow, you will probably think worse of Russia than we do, as you will not have had the buffer of European costs and inattentive service. Overall, it is better than we expected, although we had set our expectations low. We wanted to see Russia, but we expected it would not be all that enjoyable, and we would be ready to leave. Actually, everything has been enjoyable, and we could spend more time here. However, I should quickly add that we are on a high-end very expensive tour that is over engineered to shield you from any possible unpleasantry. Thus, we are getting a less than authentic experience, but after seven months of primarily authentic experiences, this coddling is mainly welcome by us. I say mainly because at times the coddling is a bit absurd for us given all of our travel experience, but naturally the trip is priced and designed for individuals who expect a five-star experience with no hassles whatsoever.

Tuesday, August 23, 2005 - Moscow and St. Petersburg, Russia

11:15 AM flight on Pulkovo Airlines. Staying four nights at Hotel Astoria in St. Petersburg. On plane I read last two issues of Moscow Times, the daily English paper. There was a lot of talk in op-ed pages, as there also is in the West, about President Putin's autocratic nature (he is a former KGB agent), and how the country is moving away from democracy toward authoritarian rule (e.g., eliminating direct election of governors, renationalizing previously privatized companies--albeit through somewhat free market purchases). There is concern that Putin will engineer a constitutional change to run for a third term in 2008 (presently Russian presidents are limited to two terms). I think the concerns are well founded. I put the chance of him trying to overstay the term limits at 40%, which is a worrying high percentage since it is only 2005. Seeing Russia I'm less bearish on it than I was before arrival, but I'm well aware that there is no real long-term history of democracy or capitalism here and the last 15 years of progress could be erased quickly (some would say it already is). The country went straight from the czars to the Bolsheviks. People don't have much experience thinking or acting for themselves.

The economy, by the way, is booming because of high oil prices--the country's primary export. In 1998, Russia defaulted on its debt and things appeared to be in shambles. Now, thanks to a low, flat tax that increased tax revenue and limited government spending, the government is running a surplus and paying off its debt ahead of schedule. One might even say that Russia has managed its fiscal affairs better than the US in recent years. For this, Putin deserves credit. Awash in cash, however, the government spending spigots are now being turned on full blast. Putin has said he wants to raise government salaries (one-fourth of the workforce) by 50% after inflation over the next three years. Russia's inflation rate is something around 13%. If that rate held steady, government salaries would have to more than double over three years for Putin to keep this promise. Moreover, such a wage increase itself could lead to increased inflation, requiring even greater wage increases. Some additional government spending is necessary. How much and what it should be spent on--infrastructure, salaries, social programs--is the question. Critics are suggesting that too much is being allocated on the last two items and not enough on infrastructure. Cynics are wondering if the government salary pledge is an initial step of a politician looking to amend the constitution for another term.

Wednesday, August 24, 2005 - St. Petersburg, Russia

Went to the Summer Palace and the Chinese Pavilion of Oranienbaum, both about an hour outside of St. Petersburg. The Summer Palace is reminiscent of Versailles outside of Paris in terms of distance from the capital and the grandeur of the building and gardens. The buildings in Russia are as opulent as anything in Europe, or the world for that matter. It's hard to compare the palaces of different countries because so many of them are so far over the top that it really becomes a matter of personal taste. Personally, I think I've seen about enough of them for all of Europe, and we've only been on the continent for a month! The my kingdom versus your kingdom one-upsmanship of palace building can become somewhat pointless. You can see why communist revolution happened here. The vulgar display of wealth by the royals contrasted with the poverty of the citizens and minimal Russian government reform is a recipe for social revolution. The lavishness of these Russian palaces is so extreme it really is a surprise that the communists did not destroy them for what they represented.

Parking meters--a concept unknown in Russia. You can park anywhere and people do.

Thursday, August 25, 2005 - St. Petersburg, Russia

Went to Pavlovsk Palace, Catherine Palace, and the Church of the Spilled Blood. Turns out the Summer Palace we saw yesterday was not the main summer palace--Pavlovsk Palace was. Again, the grandeur and endless displays of wealth is just over-the-top extreme. Several people voluntarily offered my thought of yesterday, "No wonder they had a revolution!" We have not seen Vienna, which I have heard is the grandest city in Europe, but at this point I don't think anything can top what we've seen here. The Church of the Spilled Blood has marble floors and glass mosaic walls and ceilings, making it as opulent as the palaces. It's probably the finest church I have seen. I don't understand why the communist atheists restored it, albeit at a slow pace, after World War II. Many of their actions seem inconsistent with their stated beliefs in ways I would not have expected. At night, we went to a ballet, Giselle, at the Hermitage Theater. It's off-season, so the production was only so-so, or so I am told by people who have seen a ballet before. I thought it good, as it was only two hours long.

Excepting for the palaces and churches, St. Petersburg is a bit more run down than Moscow, with somewhat more graffiti, although still less than what we have seen so far in developed Northern Europe. I suppose the most money is pumped into the government center, Moscow. Putin is from St. Petersburg, though, so I think it probably gets more pork than the rest of Russia.

Russia's population has declined by 5 million over last dozen years. We have written about population decline that developed countries, especially Japan, face in the 21st Century, but it is already happening here. I have not seen a breakdown of how much is due to deaths exceeding births and how much is due to a net outflow of immigrants. Russia does have some inward immigration, from the poorer former USSR republics to it, but I can't quantify how much.

On a separate note, I read in the local newspaper that research has revealed that Russian and Eastern European women may possess an extra gene that enables them to worry excessively about minor details at all times. The gene is present from childbirth onward, but it is also contagious by airborne contact if one spends a year or so in the Russian environment. After 1991, the gene and its contagiousness appear to be on the decline, although the chance of an outbreak is still possible, as the underlying causes that lead to the worry mutation are not completely eradicated from the country.

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